Wasn’t there suppose to be a recovery sometime soon? Could have sworn that was the music that everyone was singing a few months back, which many in the real estate arena thought was premature. But when you deal with a Government and news media that doesn’t want to report the truth on the extent of damage that has been done on not only the housing market, but the people in the housing market, then you are always going to be blind sided.
According to CNNMoney, this is the worst existing homes sales report in 15 years. If this is true, then this is much worst than what you saw two years ago which was suppose to be the bottom of this thing, but it isn’t.
In fact, if one looks at the angle of this slope and understand we are moving into the slow periods of the real estate cycle, then you can see the writing on the wall. This recovery is far from on its way. In fact, things are going to get much bleaker before they get better. We suggest that you maintain a 2012 breakout on the economy. Not breakout like explosion, but breaking out of this downward and negative cycle. Everyone that is going simply must go through the foreclosure process and get all the additional housing on the market so it can be sorted out.
A Double Dip Recession is near?
Not many are reporting this, but looking at the graph it becomes pretty clear that things are not going to get much better. With the jobs report showing that the unemployed are really suffering and growing, this cycle is likely to be here for a while.
In fact, we know much more than 9.6% of the country is out of a job, but for some reason we act like it isn’t. The Government doesn’t count everyone in the unemployment numbers, so it is definitely higher than that. It is our estimation that the number is probably closer to 15% of actual unemployment, but that is just a guestimation and including the people that are not counted any longer by the Government’s records and also the self-employed who have watched their businesses tumble in the wake of the economic condition.
Existing Home Sales for July 2010
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — With home sales plunging to their lowest level in 15 years, economists warn that a double-dip in housing prices is just around the corner, threatening to further slow the overall recovery.
Existing home sales sank 27.2% in July, twice as much as analysts expected, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million units. Much of that drop is attributed to the end of the $8,000 homebuyer tax credit.
Existing Homes For Sale is Rising as Well
One area of this equation that isn’t getting much attention is the fact that homes are building up on the market. It is getting depressing to list your home for sale cause it may sit on the market for years. The buyers are not in a rush to purchase because they know home prices are dropping lower and lower each day. Therefore the demand for homes on the market is just not high or high pressured at all. And this is all before add the avalanche of more homes hitting the market either retail or foreclosure prices.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The sales pace of all homes — single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — is at the lowest since NAR began tracking the figure in 1999. Sales of single-family homes, which account for a bulk of the transactions, are at the lowest level since May 1995.
Inventory has also continued to climb, rising 2.5% to 3.98 million existing homes for sale. That represents a 12.5-month supply at the current sales pace, the highest since October 1982 when it stood at 13.8 months. A six-month of supply is considered normal.
Where does this leave the Housing Market?
Well, I am not certified expert, but with the way the economy, abundance of available properties, and rising unemployment in the market, I wouldn’t say we are going up from here. I think the best we can hope for is sideways and that doesn’t seem to be feasible. Looks like everyone is going to have shave a little more off the top, more than a little in some places, but you get the idea.
The market hasn’t bottomed out yet despite all the bailouts and incentives that have been thrown at the situation. There is more shakedown ahead of us. Let’s just be sure to be diligent, continue to invest in ourselves, and work out way through the tunnel ahead.
No comments yet.